China's debt problem explained. (2024)

FAQs

China's debt problem explained.? ›

The underlying problem is structural. China has raised too much debt for the amount of demand there is in its economy - an imbalance that could get worse before it gets better. The housing market has been the linchpin of Chinese growth. Its success drove local government revenues.

Many pundits blame governments whenever economies crash, but the real cause of China's slump is the long period of fast growth that piled up vulnerable and unsustainable debts. The higher they fly, the harder they fall.

Over time debt has risen relative to the size of the economy—although gross debt levels are not out of line with those of other major economies, such as the United States and Japan. Moreover, public borrowing as a percentage of nominal GDP is lower in China than in other major economies.

China owns around 2.6% of U.S. debt, which it buys because the Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar. It would be impossible for China to call in all its U.S. debt at once, given the different maturity dates of the U.S. securities that China owns.

China's debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to a new record high in 2023 despite the slow pace of borrowing, reflecting the economy's weakening growth, a new report from a state-backed think tank shows.

If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

China has little overseas debt, and a high national savings rate. In addition, most of the debt is state owned – state-controlled banks loaned funds to state-controlled firms – giving the government the ability to manage the situation.

How bad is it? China's debt is more than 250 percent of GDP, higher than the United States.

Assuming a 5 percent annual growth rate, China might not overtake the United States until 2035. Some analysts even argue that China's economy may never surpass that of the United States.

The United States is the undisputed heavyweight when it comes to the economies of the world. America's gross domestic product in 2022 was more than 40% greater than that of China, the world No. 2. Even more striking, U.S. GDP was over five times that of the next two largest economies, Japan and Germany.

How much does China owe the USA? ›

The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.

In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.

Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.

China's foreign debt in currencies other than the yuan includes private sector firms' borrowing from foreign banks, trade-related credit to Chinese firms from foreign trading partners and debt securities issued by Chinese state-owned and private sector firms to foreign investors.

Singapore is one of Asia's major financial centers. It is also one of the most prosperous countries on the planet. And all this has been achieved without taking on any meaningful public debt. In fact, very much like Norway, Singapore has more assets than debt.

Including both private and public debt holders, the top three December 2020 national holders of American public debt are Japan ($1.2 trillion or 17.7%), China ($1.1 trillion or 15.2%), and the United Kingdom ($0.4 trillion or 6.2%).

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

In the 15 years since, China's debt-to-GDP ratio has doubled to a whopping 280% , opens new tab, with the bulk of liabilities held by local government financial vehicles (LGFVs).

In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.

HOW IS THE CHINESE ECONOMY DOING? The Chinese economy grew at a 5.2% annual pace in 2023, exceeding the government's target, and many indicators including factory output and retail sales show signs of improvement. But most economists are forecasting a slowdown this year and next that will drag on global growth.